📊 Recent Form
CF Montreal
Columbus Crew
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 38%. CF Montreal edge it at 37% against 28% for the draw and 35% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Columbus Crew while the probabilities favour CF Montreal. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Columbus Crew made their superiority count with a clean sheet away at CF Montreal, securing a 2-0 win that never really looked in doubt once they got going. Farsi broke the deadlock in the 57th minute with an assist from Zawadzki, and Mendez added a second in the 68th to seal it. Montreal created little and offered almost nothing in response—a straightforward away victory for the visitors.
Our model leaned toward Columbus at 35% and got the result direction right, but we'd predicted a tighter 1-2 scoreline. We called the Crew to win, which they did, though the actual finish was more comfortable than we'd sized it. Montreal's form coming in had been mixed, and Columbus's record away from home looked solid on paper, but we'd weighted the fixture as a genuine coin-flip backed by their head-to-head advantage and the fixture's history of goals. The 2-0 final score skewed more decisively toward the visitors than our lean suggested—Montreal just didn't have enough in the tank, and Columbus didn't need to push as hard as the pre-match probabilities implied they might.
It's the kind of away win where everything clicks into place just enough. Both sides sit mid-table with little to play for in terms of desperation, which can sometimes make matches feel settled once one team gets a foothold. Columbus got theirs and didn't look back.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal Win | 11/8 2.41 | 39% | 37% | -2% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.69 | 26% | 28% | +2% |
| Columbus Crew Win | 13/8 2.61 | 35% | 35% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Montreal 20% win rate, poor home form (WLDDD); Columbus 20% win rate but better defensive record away
H2H: Columbus lead 4-1-3 across last 8; high-scoring fixture averaging 3.1 goals/game; recent away win for Columbus in May 2024
Stakes: Both teams mid-table with no acute promotion/relegation pressure — balanced motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Columbus Crew dominate this H2H with 4 wins from the last 8, and the fixture consistently produces goals — 3.1 per game average. The most recent meeting (Aug 2026) went 1-2 to Montreal but prior results heavily favour Columbus.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.