📊 Recent Form
CF Montreal
DC United
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 37%. CF Montreal edge it at 36% against 31% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to DC United while the probabilities favour CF Montreal. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have CF Montreal at 36% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 43% — a gap against us of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
CF Montreal and DC United played out a 1-1 draw on the day, with neither side able to find a decisive edge. Owusu opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 50th minute for Montreal, but DC United levelled through Baribo on 67 minutes, with Nono providing the assist. Both teams had chances to win it but neither could make them count.
Our model went 1-2 to DC United and assigned a 31% probability to the draw—the outcome that actually unfolded. That made it the second-most likely scenario in our thinking, so while we got the result direction wrong, we weren't way off base. The pre-match picture had DC United favoured thanks to better recent form and a stronger away record, while Montreal were expected to struggle for goals at home. The match didn't play out that way. Montreal were clinical when it mattered most from the spot, and despite DC United's push to take all three points, neither side pulled clear in what turned into a cagey second half.
This is one of those nights where the draw sits right between what the data suggested and what actually happened. Montreal will take a point given their form, while DC United will feel they left something on the table given their pre-match trajectory.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal Win | 6/5 2.20 | 43% | 36% | -7% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.55 | 26% | 31% | +5% |
| DC United Win | 2/1 3.00 | 31% | 33% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Montreal averaging just 1.32 goals scored at home with a 30% win rate; DC United averaging 2.29 goals with back-to-back wins before the break.
H2H: DC United lead the series 3-1-4 in last 8; recent 4-4 thriller shows both teams can score freely but DC United's away record includes a draw and a win in last 3 away trips.
Stakes: Both teams are mid-table with no severe relegation/promotion pressure, but DC United have more to prove with slightly better form.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Draw-prone series overall (4 of 8 draws) but DC United have won 3 of the last 5 meetings; the most recent encounter was a 4-4 thriller, suggesting both teams can contribute goals when facing each other.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.