📊 Recent Form
CF Montreal
Nashville SC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Nashville SC at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Nashville SC at 49% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 58% — a gap against us of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Nashville SC came to Montreal and got the job done with a clean sheet, taking the points through goals from Surridge in the 51st minute and an own goal from Keita in the 76th. It wasn't a classic, but it was efficient—exactly the kind of afternoon Montreal couldn't afford given where both sides sit in the table right now.
Our model had called a 0-2 Nashville win at 49% probability, which made it the most likely outcome but hardly a done deal. The forecast leaned on Nashville's recent form and their historical edge in this fixture, plus Montreal's struggles at home. The match played out broadly in line with that thinking—Nashville controlled the tempo, broke through when they needed to, and Montreal couldn't muster a response. There were no real surprises in how it unfolded; Nashville's quality and Montreal's current position showed up in the scoreline.
The win keeps Nashville moving in the right direction as the season winds down, while Montreal will need to regroup. It's the kind of result that looks straightforward in hindsight but was genuinely competitive before kickoff—Nashville were favored, but Montreal had an outside shot. This time, the favorites got it right.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal Win Value | 4/1 4.87 | 19% | 27% | +8% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.15 | 23% | 24% | +1% |
| Nashville SC Win | 3/5 1.61 | 58% | 49% | -9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Nashville 5W in last 5 competitive, Montreal 3L in last 4 home games
H2H: Nashville dominant — 5 wins, 2 draws, 1 Montreal win in last 8; recent 1-0 and 3-0 Nashville victories
Stakes: Late MLS season — Nashville likely chasing playoff seeding, Montreal with little to play for and fatigued
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Nashville have dominated this fixture — winning 5 of last 8, including back-to-back shutouts (3-0 in March 2025, 1-0 in July 2026). Away dominance is a clear pattern and strongly favours Nashville on the road.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.