Internacional came away from Chapecoense-sc with a 2-1 win in a tight Brasileirão encounter that played out remarkably close to our pre-match script. Bruno Henrique broke the deadlock in the 25th minute, set up by Johan Carbonero, but Chapecoense pulled level just before half-time when Maurício Garcez finished from a Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior assist. Carbonero then sealed it for Internacional in the 67th, and despite late pressure from the home side, the away team held firm.

Our model had landed on exactly this scoreline beforehand — calling a 1-2 win to Internacional — though it wasn't painted as a certainty. The model gave Internacional a 40% probability heading in, which meant it was the favoured outcome but far from a done deal given the stakes involved. Both clubs were deep in relegation peril, which our pre-match analysis flagged as a recipe for genuine end-to-end commitment and likely goals. That high-pressure, open-play nature showed up in the match: three goals across the 90 minutes, both teams hunting chances, and Internacional's away record — historically strong in head-to-head meetings — holding up despite their sluggish away form across the league this season.

The margin itself hung on Internacional's ability to see things through in the second half once Carbonero added the second. It wasn't a comfortable evening, but it was exactly the kind of contested, tight affair the pre-match picture suggested would unfold.