📊 Recent Form
Charleroi
Cercle Brugge
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Charleroi at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi Win | 8/11 1.73 | 53% | 54% | +1% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 25% | +1% |
| Cercle Brugge Win | 3/1 4.01 | 23% | 21% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Cercle Brugge in relegation danger (P15, only 1 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charleroi averaging 1.81 goals scored at home with solid defensive record (1.01 conceded); Cercle Brugge averaging just 0.81 goals scored but conceding 1.73 per game away
H2H: Last 8 meetings average 3.3 goals, recent meetings include 3-4 and 2-3 scorelines — a high-scoring pattern
Stakes: Cercle Brugge sit P15 with just 1pt cushion above the relegation zone, generating strong survival motivation; Charleroi P4 with normal motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
High-scoring fixture with 3.3 goals per game across last 8 meetings; recent H2H includes 3-4 and 2-3 results showing both teams regularly find the net against each other, though Cercle Brugge have won 4 of the last 8 encounters.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.