📊 Recent Form
Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Charleroi a 61% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Charleroi at 61% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 52% — a gap in our favour of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 56/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi Win Value | 8/11 1.76 | 52% | 61% | +9% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.95 | 24% | 18% | -6% |
| KVC Westerlo Win | 3/1 4.05 | 24% | 21% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charleroi in solid home form (avg 1.36 scored, 0.86 conceded); Westerlo dangerous away (avg 1.63 scored but 2.15 conceded)
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3 goals/game; home side has dominated historically; last 5 meetings all produced goals for both sides
Stakes: Business end of season — both sides elevated in intensity; Charleroi motivated at home
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H strongly favours home dominance with 5 Charleroi wins from 8; however, Westerlo won both most recent meetings away, and nearly every fixture has produced goals for both teams — averaging 3 per game.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.