📊 Recent Form
Charleroi
OH Leuven
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Charleroi a 60% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Charleroi at 60% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 54% — a gap in our favour of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi Win Value | 8/11 1.74 | 54% | 60% | +6% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.85 | 24% | 22% | -2% |
| OH Leuven Win | 10/3 4.41 | 22% | 18% | -4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charleroi averaging 1.07 goals scored at home with a solid defensive record; OH Leuven averaging 1.46 scored but 1.64 conceded overall with inconsistent away form
H2H: Last 8 meetings average only 1.8 goals per game — a tight, low-scoring fixture historically; Charleroi just won 2-0 in the reverse meeting
Stakes: Business end of season elevates intensity; Charleroi as hosts with statistical edge have more to play for at home
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings are evenly split but very tight and low-scoring (avg 1.8 goals/game). The last meeting was a 2-0 Charleroi win away, and the most recent home fixture ended 0-2 to OH Leuven — alternating results with frequent clean sheets for the winning side.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
