📊 Recent Form
Charleroi
OH Leuven
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Charleroi at 48%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Charleroi at 48% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 52% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi Win | 4/5 1.77 | 52% | 48% | -4% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.55 | 26% | 25% | -1% |
| OH Leuven Win Value | 10/3 4.40 | 22% | 27% | +5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charleroi home form LWD with goals in recent games; OH Leuven away form DLDL — struggling on road
H2H: Limited recent data but both teams tend to score in matches involving these sides
Stakes: Early season, no meaningful positions established — normal motivation for both sides
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data available, but recent OH Leuven fixtures have been high-scoring (3-6, 4-4), suggesting they contribute to open games even in losses. Charleroi's last scores average around 4 total goals per match.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.