📊 Recent Form
Charleroi
Union St. Gilloise
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Union St. Gilloise edge it at 42% against 22% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Union St. Gilloise at 42% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 45% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 83/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi Win Value | 9/4 3.30 | 28% | 36% | +8% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.43 | 27% | 22% | -5% |
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 11/10 2.09 | 45% | 42% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Charleroi in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charleroi strong at home (WWLWD, 1.8 avg scored), Union excellent overall (60% win rate, 2.44 avg scored) but fatigued with only 2 days rest
H2H: Union dominant — 6 wins in last 8, avg 2.9 goals/game, away_dominant pattern
Stakes: Charleroi in title race (P1) providing meaningful motivation boost; Union mid-table (P4) with standard motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Union St. Gilloise completely dominate this fixture — 6 wins and 2 draws in the last 8 meetings with zero Charleroi wins. Recent results include a 4-1 away win and 3-1 win this season, confirming a strong away_dominant pattern averaging 2.9 goals per game.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.