Charlton pulled off a narrow but decisive win at home, with Karlan Grant's 56th-minute strike — set up by Millenic Alli — proving enough to settle the match. It was a tightly contested affair that didn't play out as our model expected. We'd predicted a 1-2 scoreline in Preston's favour, giving Charlton a 40% chance of victory. The actual result put us on the wrong side of the forecast: Charlton won 1-0, a clean sheet that rewrote the script entirely.

Before kickoff, the model had leaned toward a Preston win, weighted by their historic dominance in this fixture — they'd won seven of the last eight meetings — despite their dire away record elsewhere in the league. That H2H pattern was a powerful signal, and it meant we underestimated Charlton's ability to turn the tide at home. We'd also flagged both teams to score as likely, which didn't materialise. Preston's relegation-form struggles and Charlton's push toward the top two created a tense backdrop, but the hosts kept it tight and took their chance when it came, with Grant's finish the sole moment of clinical finishing the match would see.

It's a good reminder that even a strong historical pattern can't always override the shape of a single match. Our model weighted the fixture's narrative correctly on paper, but Charlton's execution and Preston's bluntness in attack on the road flipped the balance.