Philadelphia Union dominated a Chicago Fire side reduced to ten men, running out 3-1 winners in a result that our model had leaned toward but ultimately undershot on the scoreline. We'd predicted a 1-2 Union victory with 34 percent win probability — the correct outcome, though not the exact margin.

The match turned decisively in the opening minutes of the second half. Fire got ahead through Haile-Selassie's assist from Noah Allen in the 44th minute, but a red card for Elliott at the stroke of halftime shifted the entire complexion. Union equalized immediately after the restart through Iloski, who benefited from Damiani's assist, then Damiani himself struck twice — first from a Cavan Sullivan pass in the 55th minute, then again in the 67th with Jovan Lukic setting him up. It was a ruthless performance from the visitors, who capitalized on their numerical advantage to dismantle a Fire outfit already stretched by injury and form issues heading into the weekend.

Before kickoff, our model had spotted Union's recent red-hot form and Chicago's defensive fragility at home, flagging a competitive but ultimately Union-favoring contest. That broad shape held — the visitors won decisively and both teams did score — but the 3-1 scoreline tells you how completely Fire's situation unraveled once they went down to ten. The red card compressed what might've stayed tight into a rout.