China vs Thailand
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Win | 10/11 1.95 | 47% | 34% | -13% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 38% | +9% |
| Thailand Win | 11/4 3.75 | 24% | 28% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: China poor (WLL, 0.67 avg scored), Thailand strong (WLWWW, 1.73 avg scored)
H2H: 3 China wins, 1 draw, 1 Thailand win in last 5; avg 2.2 goals/game
Stakes: Friendly match, minimal competitive pressure, draw is a realistic friendly outcome
Betting: BTTS likely given Thailand's attacking form and China's defensive frailty; Under 2.5 favoured as low xG (0.79/0.75) and friendly context suppress goal totals
⚔️ Head to Head
China have dominated home H2H fixtures historically, but the last meeting ended 1-1 in June 2024, and Thailand won in March 2019 — trend suggests close, competitive matches with goals on both sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Thailand's strong attacking form (1.73 avg goals scored) and China's defensive vulnerability (2.7 avg conceded) make it likely Thailand will score. China have shown the ability to score at home (1-0 win in last home fixture) and Thailand's away record in this dataset is limited, giving China a reasonable chance to net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Both teams carry low xG values (combined 1.54) and this is a friendly with reduced competitive intensity. The Poisson model's top result is 0-0 at 21.6%, and the two most likely scoring outcomes (1-0 and 0-1) total under 2.5 goals. A 1-1 scoreline keeps the match under the 2.5 threshold, consistent with the cautious, low-stakes nature of the fixture.