Columbus Crew put on a dominant display to beat DC United 3-0, though the scoreline tells a messier story than the final margin suggests. Zawadzki opened the scoring in the 16th minute with an assist from Chambost, but DC United grabbed a lifeline just eight minutes later when Kurokawa converted a penalty to level things up. From there, though, Crew took control. Zaroury restored the lead before the break with another Chambost assist, and then an own goal from Nono in the 60th minute sealed a comprehensive win.

Our model had leaned toward Columbus but stopped short of calling a convincing victory. The pre-match prediction of 2-0 was backed by a 58% win probability for Crew — a modest edge rather than a strong conviction — so while we got the result direction right, we underestimated the damage they'd inflict. The underlying metrics pointed to a dominant expected goal gap (2.14 to 0.91), and that advantage did translate on the pitch, but we hadn't quite factored in the chaos that would unfold. A penalty conceded and an own goal aren't things you easily forecast, even when the quality difference is clear.

This was a straightforward case where Columbus's superior form and firepower came through, just in messier fashion than the numbers had suggested. Crew's control of the game looked every bit as strong as their pre-match xG advantage implied, and three points against a struggling DC United side moves them on in convincing style — even if the exact path there wasn't quite what our model had envisioned.