Columbus Crew edged out FC Cincinnati 2-1 in a tighter contest than our pre-match model had suggested. Cincinnati struck first through Denkey in the ninth minute, assisted by Evander, but the Crew levelled before the break when Thiare finished from Chambost's assist on 41 minutes. The decisive moment came right at the end of the first half, when Gazdag converted a penalty in the 45th minute to put Columbus ahead. A red card for Valenzuela late on completed a frustrating night for the visitors.

Our model had backed Columbus to win at 61 per cent and predicted a 3-1 scoreline. The result direction proved correct, but the match played out tighter than expected — both teams had chances and Cincinnati's early goal showed they weren't there to roll over at home. The model had weighted a higher-scoring affair based on the fixture's history of goals and Columbus's strong home record, but Cincinnati's away form is dodgy and they couldn't quite find that second goal despite a disciplined start. The goal count fell short of what we'd anticipated, suggesting either tighter defending or fewer clear-cut opportunities than the pre-match metrics suggested.

It's a good reminder that even when you call the winner right, the specific path to victory is rarely a given. Columbus got the job done and the three points, which is what mattered in the end.