Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense served up a six-goal thriller that completely upended the script, ending 3-3 after our model had pencilled in a 1-2 win for Atletico. The visitors dominated the opening hour, racing into a commanding position through Luiz Gustavo's early strike in the 14th minute, then doubling their lead when Arthur Dias made it 2-0 just after the half-hour mark. By halftime, though, Coritiba had clawed one back through Tiago Coser in the 45th minute—but they'd also been reduced to ten men when Breno Lopes was sent off moments earlier. Atletico looked to have put the tie beyond reach with Kevin Viveros's penalty in the 63rd minute to make it 3-1, yet Coritiba somehow found another gear. Rodrigo Moledo bagged a brace in quickfire succession deep into injury time, first in the 90th minute and again in the 90+7th, both set up by Josué, to grab an improbable draw.

Our model gave the draw just a 30% chance before kickoff, so this wasn't the outcome we were banking on. We'd leaned toward an Atletico victory based on their superior form coming in and the extra motivation of chasing a top-two finish, whereas Coritiba had shown mixed recent form. The low-scoring history between these sides also pointed toward something tighter than what actually unfolded. What we got instead was a chaotic second half where ten-man Coritiba refused to lie down, and Atletico couldn't close out the game despite being three goals up. It's a reminder that even when the underlying shape of a fixture points one way, football's got plenty of plot twists left to spring.