Croatia vs Ghana

Croatia edged past Ghana 2-1 in a World Cup group-stage fixture that didn't quite play out as our model had sketched it. Sucic opened the scoring for Croatia in the 31st minute with an assist from Kovacic, putting the favorites on course for the clean sheet we'd predicted. But Ghana didn't roll over. They pulled one back on the 73rd minute through Luckassen, who finished off a move started by Nuamah, and suddenly the script shifted. Croatia steadied themselves and sealed it through Vlasic in the 83rd, courtesy of a Modric assist, to wrap up a one-goal win.

Our pre-match prediction had Croatia winning 2-0, and while we nailed the result direction, the actual scoreline delivered a late scare we hadn't banked on. The model had given Croatia a 67 percent win probability here—a clear lean toward the favorites, but far from certainty. The match itself reflected that lean reasonably well: Croatia controlled most of it and came away with three points against an underdog side that showed enough fight to trouble them late on. Ghana's form coming in was mixed, and that unpredictability showed up on the pitch. The model had weighted a tighter, more controlled performance from Croatia, so Ghana's goal was the kind of curveball that happens in football—plausible, just less likely than what we'd expected. In the end, Croatia got the job done, even if they had to sweat a bit harder for it than the numbers suggested they might.