Maccabi Tel Aviv turned the tie on its head with a commanding 3-1 away win, overturning the first-leg deficit to progress from what looked like a CSKA Sofia stronghold. The designated home side started brightly—Peretz put Maccabi ahead in the 12th minute with an assist from Davida—but CSKA's defensive record at home suggested they'd find a way back. They didn't. Sokler doubled Maccabi's lead in the 61st minute, again fed by Davida, before Sensi pulled one back for CSKA four minutes later courtesy of Eto'o's assist. That brief moment of hope evaporated almost immediately when Lapoukhov's own goal in the 69th minute made it 3-1 and effectively killed the tie.

Our model had predicted a 2-0 CSKA win with the home side favoured at 65% to win outright. That lean was rooted in a rock-solid home record and the tactical advantage of only needing to avoid a four-goal loss, while Maccabi faced the much steeper hill of a three-goal victory requirement. The first leg had looked dominant for CSKA too—a 3-0 drubbing that suggested Maccabi lacked the cutting edge to threaten on the road. None of that read held. Our model assigned just 15% to a Maccabi win, and that's exactly what we got wrong. CSKA's defence, which had been leaking just 0.54 goals per game at home, couldn't cope with Maccabi's intensity and precision in the final third, particularly Davida's creative play in open play. Sometimes the favourite's weakness simply gets exposed, and that's what happened here.