OFI secured their place in the next round with a composed 2-0 victory over CSKA Sofia, keeping their aggregate lead intact and advancing from the tie. Nuss got the opener in the 36th minute with an assist from Poungouras, before Theodosoulakis sealed it in the 78th with Apostolakis providing the setup. It was exactly the kind of controlled performance OFI needed: they soaked up pressure where it mattered and punished CSKA on the break, leaving the home side with too much to do from the first whistle.

Our model predicted a 2-0 scoreline going in, which matches the final result perfectly — but here's the honest bit: we called OFI to win with just 17% confidence before kickoff. That's a lean among plausible outcomes, not a strong forecast. The model had CSKA Sofia as clear favorites at 58%, reasoning that desperation at home might unlock chances and their decent form suggested enough attacking threat to break OFI down. What actually unfolded was closer to the aggregate context: OFI, already 3-0 up from the first leg, played the tie as a team protecting a big lead, and CSKA couldn't manufacture the dominance required to turn it around. The match shaped up much more like a second-leg formality than a genuine contest.

The result wasn't shocking — OFI's away record coming in was rough, but they showed here they can travel and execute when the stakes and scoreline demand it. CSKA's mixed recent form didn't deliver the spark they needed on the night. Sometimes the favorites don't show up, and sometimes the underdog does their job quietly.