Curaçao vs Aruba
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curaçao Win | 1/10 1.10 | 84% | 42% | -42% |
| Draw Value | 7/1 8.20 | 11% | 35% | +24% |
| Aruba Win Value | 20/1 21.00 | 5% | 23% | +18% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Curaçao (84% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Curaçao winless in last 4 (LDDL), Aruba won their only recent game 2-1
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Friendly match — low intrinsic motivation for both sides, but home pride edges Curaçao
Betting: Bookmakers imply ~91% home win probability, strongly supporting a Curaçao victory; low xG totals (0.79 + 0.75) and defensive trends point toward under 2.5 goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Curaçao have conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches, but their home xG of 0.79 still edges Aruba's 0.75, and Aruba's attack is not expected to breach a Curaçao defence motivated by home advantage; Aruba are likely to be shut out in this narrow contest.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Both teams have low xG values (0.79 and 0.75) and Curaçao's recent matches have been low-scoring (0-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2); combined with friendly match context reducing intensity, total goals are expected to stay under 2.5.