📊 Recent Form
Curaçao
Ivory Coast
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Ivory Coast a 78% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Ivory Coast at 78% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 83% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as high at 76/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Ivory Coast dominated this World Cup group-stage clash to secure a convincing 2-0 victory over Curaçao. Pépé got the ball rolling early, firing home in the 7th minute after a setup from Diomande, then sealed the result with a second goal in the 64th minute, this time assisted by Sangaré. It was a controlled performance from the Ivorians that underlined the quality gap between the two sides.
Our model predicted a 0-2 scoreline heading into kickoff, giving Ivory Coast a 78% chance to win. That outcome landed spot on — both the result direction and the exact scoreline. Before the match, the form lines suggested Ivory Coast were the clear favourites, with Curaçao struggling against quality opposition and the Ivorians coming in with recent momentum. The match unfolded in line with those expectations, with Ivory Coast's attacking intent and defensive solidity proving too much for their opponents.
Getting the score exactly right on a World Cup fixture is rare, and it's worth noting that a 78% lean is a strong call but still leaves room for the other outcomes that didn't materialise. In this case, Ivory Coast's quality simply showed on the day, and our prediction was borne out by what we saw on the pitch.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curaçao Win | 16/1 19.00 | 5% | 4% | -1% |
| Draw Value | 7/1 7.93 | 12% | 18% | +6% |
| Ivory Coast Win | 1/7 1.15 | 83% | 78% | -5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ivory Coast LWWWWW with clean sheets in 4 of last 5; Curaçao DLWLLL with large-margin losses to quality sides
H2H: Limited data between these nations
Stakes: World Cup group stage — Ivory Coast highly motivated to secure points; Curaçao fighting for credibility but significant quality gap
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — these nations have rarely if ever met competitively, so form and ELO carry full weight in this prediction.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
📊 Group E Standings
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
Live Group E table, built from completed results · full group page →