📊 Recent Form
Czech Republic
Guatemala
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Czech Republic a 69% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
Note that the projected scoreline of 0–0 points to a draw while the probabilities favour Czech Republic. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Czech Republic at 69% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 79% — a gap against us of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 0 goals. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czech Republic Win | 1/6 1.16 | 79% | 69% | -10% |
| Draw Value | 11/2 6.50 | 14% | 19% | +5% |
| Guatemala Win Value | 14/1 16.00 | 7% | 12% | +5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Czech Republic unbeaten at home (WD), low conceding record (0.36 avg). Guatemala inconsistent (LDWLWDWLW), leaky defence conceding ~2 per game away.
H2H: Limited data between these nations.
Stakes: International friendly — neither side has competitive stakes, but Czech Republic will use this as preparation and Guatemala face a tough ELO test.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to draw meaningful trends between Czech Republic and Guatemala.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-0 scoreline totals 0 goals, keeping it under 2.5.