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DC United
Charlotte
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Charlotte edge it at 42% against 27% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Charlotte at 42% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 38% — a gap in our favour of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Charlotte pulled off a deserved win at DC United, running out 2-1 victors in a match that unfolded largely as our model had anticipated. Westwood opened the scoring for the visitors in the 22nd minute, before Bartlett levelled things up for DC just after the restart with an assist from Kurokawa. Saint-Maximin sealed it for Charlotte in the 71st minute, Westwood turning provider this time around, to secure all three points.
Our model had leaned towards a Charlotte win at 42% probability — the third most likely outcome in a tight matchup. The exact scoreline of 1-2 came in as our headline prediction, backed up by the underlying form and head-to-head data. Before kickoff, Charlotte looked well positioned: the visitors had been strong away from home while DC United's form at home showed real inconsistency. Charlotte's dominance in the H2H record and superior squad depth made them the marginal favourites, and that's exactly how the match played out. They showed composure to edge a competitive game, with Westwood's involvement at both ends of the Charlotte attack proving the difference.
The result sits squarely within what we'd flagged as likely. It wasn't a shock; it was football working as the numbers had sketched it out. Both sides found the net, the game finished with three goals across the 90 minutes, and the away team came away with the win — all in keeping with the pre-match picture. Charlotte's quality showed in the end.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC United Win | 13/8 2.63 | 36% | 31% | -5% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.69 | 26% | 27% | +1% |
| Charlotte Win | 11/8 2.40 | 38% | 42% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: DC United inconsistent at home (DWDLDW), Charlotte strong away (DWWD) with high scoring output
H2H: Charlotte dominant — 5 wins in last 8, avg 2.4 goals/game, away team wins most meetings
Stakes: Mid-season MLS — both teams likely competing for playoff spots, Charlotte better positioned (higher ELO by 91 points)
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Charlotte have been dominant in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 meetings including a 3-1 win in August 2026 and a 3-0 win in October 2024. The away team has consistently won, and goals have averaged 2.4 per game — pointing to a competitive but Charlotte-favoured result.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.