Derry City vs HNK Rijeka
📖 The Preview
Rijeka head to the Brandywell already holding a 1-0 advantage from the first leg, which completely changes the dynamic here. Derry need to win, which opens them up, and Rijeka have been in cracking form lately, winning four on the bounce before that run ended. Derry's recent record is patchy at best, and with the tie effectively in Rijeka's hands, they should have enough to keep things tight and nick a couple on the break, seeing this one out 2-0 on the night.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City Win Value | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 36% | +17% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.65 | 25% | 25% | ±0% |
| HNK Rijeka Win | 4/6 1.67 | 56% | 39% | -17% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 1-0 (2026-07-23): HNK Rijeka leading aggregate by 1. Derry City needs to win by 1+ goals (or force ET if win by exactly 1); HNK Rijeka needs to avoid losing by 2+ goals.
- 🏆 Knockout margin cap applied: limited away margin to 2 goals
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Derry City xG 1.06 | HNK Rijeka xG 1.26
Projected: 28% / 25% / 47%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.