📊 Recent Form
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. HNK Rijeka edge it at 39% against 25% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have HNK Rijeka at 39% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 56% — a gap against us of 17 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
HNK Rijeka came away from Derry City with a clean sheet and a 1-0 win in this UEFA Conference League encounter. D. Adu Adjei settled it early, finding the back of the net in the 14th minute to give the visitors control they'd keep through to the final whistle. It wasn't a goal-heavy affair—neither side found the net again—but Rijeka's clinical finish proved enough to take the points.
Before kickoff, our model pegged this as a likely Rijeka win, assigning them a 39% probability of victory. The prediction of a 0-2 scoreline missed on the exact margin, though we did call the result direction correctly. The model had expected a fairly tight, low-scoring contest based on pre-match expected goals (Derry 1.06, Rijeka 1.26), and that lean played out broadly in line with the game's actual shape—a one-goal game with limited clear-cut chances for either side. Where we got it slightly wrong was the goalscoring: instead of two Rijeka goals, one proved decisive, and Derry couldn't find an equaliser despite their efforts.
This wasn't a shock result. Rijeka came in as the slight favourite and delivered the goods, though the margin was tighter than the model's scorecast suggested. It's a good reminder that in low-xG matches like this one, single-goal wins are always as likely as multi-goal blowouts—we leaned into the more emphatic scoreline and got caught out. Still, backing the away side to win in a tight contest got the headline right, even if the fine print needed correction.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City Win Value | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 36% | +17% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.65 | 25% | 25% | ±0% |
| HNK Rijeka Win | 4/6 1.67 | 56% | 39% | -17% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 1-0 (2026-07-23): HNK Rijeka leading aggregate by 1. Derry City needs to win by 1+ goals (or force ET if win by exactly 1); HNK Rijeka needs to avoid losing by 2+ goals.
- 🏆 Knockout margin cap applied: limited away margin to 2 goals
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Derry City xG 1.06 | HNK Rijeka xG 1.26
Projected: 28% / 25% / 47%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.