📊 Recent Form
Dinamo Tirana
Aluminij
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Dinamo Tirana a 64% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Dinamo Tirana at 64% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 53% — a gap in our favour of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Tirana Win Value | 8/11 1.75 | 53% | 64% | +11% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 20% | -6% |
| Aluminij Win | 10/3 4.40 | 21% | 16% | -5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 1-1 (2026-07-23): tie level on aggregate going into second leg.
- 🎯 Final scoreline overridden to AI pick 2-0 (aggregate-tie: AI tactical reasoning trusted over Poisson form blend)
- 🎯 Probabilities recomputed from final scoreline 2-0 (aggregate-tie override): 75/17/8
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Dinamo Tirana averaging nearly 2 goals per game overall with a 50% win rate; Aluminij winless in all recent matches and averaging just 0.43 goals scored.
H2H: First leg ended 1-1 away, confirming Aluminij can be competitive but rarely create enough to score multiple times.
Stakes: UEFA Conference League elimination — Dinamo at home with crowd advantage and full squad; Aluminij must attack but lack the firepower to do so credibly.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — only one known meeting (first leg, 1-1), which suggests Aluminij can defend but are unlikely to score freely away from home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.