Dinamo Tirana dismantled Auda 4-0 in a knockout second leg that went well beyond what the pre-match forecast had in mind. Qardaku opened the scoring in the 36th minute with an assist from Silva-Richards, then doubled the lead before the interval when Qefalia made it 2-0 from Qardaku's pass. The floodgates properly opened after the restart—Ayodeji made it three in the 52nd minute, again set up by Silva-Richards, before Fadairo wrapped it up in the 79th with Ruci credited for the assist. The designated home side controlled the tie completely and advanced in style.

Our model had predicted a 2-1 scoreline with a 58% lean toward a Dinamo win, so we got the result direction right but badly underestimated the margin. The pre-match setup pointed to Dinamo needing to press hard—they had to win by two clear goals to advance outright—while Auda's task was to stay compact and avoid defeat by that margin. Going in, Dinamo held a significant rest advantage after eight days without a match compared to Auda's three, and that fresher state looked like it could tip the balance. What we didn't quite foresee was how thoroughly Dinamo would impose that advantage. The defensive solidity we'd flagged for Auda simply didn't materialize; instead of a tightly contested affair, Dinamo ran through them.

The gap between a 2-1 call and a 4-0 result is a proper miss on our part. We leaned the right way, but the model weighted Auda's defensive record and the stakes of the tie more heavily than Dinamo's ability to break them down once they got rolling. That's a lesson in how a single advantage—here, rest and attacking momentum—can compound faster than the numbers initially suggested.