Drita and Floriana finished level at 1-1 in this UEFA Conference League second-leg knockout tie, keeping the aggregate score locked at 2-2 after their opening-leg draw and forcing the match to extra time and penalties. Floriana struck first through Mbong in the 40th minute, assisted by Varela, but Drita levelled through Pellumbi's finish in the 88th, only for an own goal by Kauan in the 91st minute to hand Floriana the lead once more. The result means this tie remains genuinely alive heading into the decisive stage.

Our model backed Drita to edge it 1-0, assigning a draw just 29% probability — a meaningful lean toward a Drita win, but not a confident one. The actual outcome sits well outside our central call. We weighted Drita's ELO advantage and their comfort defending a one-goal first-leg lead fairly heavily, and underestimated Floriana's capacity to trouble them, particularly in the final stages. The stakes — full elimination — and the first-leg setup (a 1-1 away draw) did seem to point toward caution and limited goals, which the model trusted. Instead, the second half saw genuine intensity and drama, with both sides creating and conceding chances that the pre-match shape hadn't fully accounted for.

There's no hiding the miss here. Our model got the direction wrong and the exact scoreline wrong. Credit to both teams for refusing to settle for a cautious draw, and to Floriana for their character in mounting a late push. Drita will feel frustration at the own goal in stoppage time, having clawed back a deficit. The knockout will now be decided by extra time and spot-kicks.