Dundee United's 3-0 demolition of Dundee proved far more decisive than our pre-match model anticipated. Will Ferry's 14th-minute opener set the tone for a one-sided affair, with the Tannadice winger adding a second in the 70th minute after setup work from Valerijus Sevelj. Ross Strain sealed the result two minutes later, completing a sequence where United's attack overwhelmed their city rivals entirely. The scoreline flatters neither team's recent form—United were expected to control proceedings given their strong home record (WWWDDW), but this level of dominance suggested Dundee offered considerably less resistance than their away form (DLWLL) had suggested they might.

Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline with United winning, which correctly identified the result direction but substantially underestimated the margin of victory. The prediction was anchored by reasonable assumptions: Dundee's struggles away from home and United's comfort in their stadium should have produced a narrow win. However, several pre-match flags we'd raised—particularly Dundee's dismal away record and the mid-table stakes that might suppress United's intensity—appeared to misfire. The away side managed no meaningful attacking threat and looked outclassed from early in the first half, suggesting either a sharper performance from United than their mid-table position implied, or a more profound gulf in quality than the preceding form lines indicated. Where we'd flagged both teams' tendency to score and the fixture's historical high-scoring nature, the complete absence of Dundee attacking impetus rendered that analysis moot. This represented a clear instance where our model failed to account for the psychological or tactical imbalance that emerged in the opening stages.