📊 Recent Form
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Hibernian edge it at 39% against 27% for the draw and 34% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 10 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Dundee Utd got the better of Hibernian in a cagey affair, running out 1-0 winners at Tannadice. Daniel Bennie's 35th-minute strike, set up by Lyall Cameron, proved the difference on the night. Hibernian had their chances to get back into it, but couldn't find the breakthrough before Jacob Devaney's red card in the 84th minute all but settled matters. It was a tight contest that swung decisively in Dundee's favour once they went down to ten men.
Our model had leaned toward a Hibernian win and a 1-2 scoreline, giving the visitors a 39% chance beforehand. That meant a home victory only ranked at 34% — so while Dundee's win wasn't outside the realm of possibility, it wasn't the likeliest path we'd mapped out. The model had factored in Hibernian's relatively solid away form against Dundee's inconsistency on home turf, and the high-scoring history between these two sides suggested goals would flow both ways. None of that quite materialised.
What swung it was a degree of control Dundee managed through the middle and a Hibernian side that, despite their desperation to grind a result given their league position, never really got going in attack. The sending-off compounded things, of course, but by then the damage was done. It's a reminder that even when the underlying patterns point one way, eleven men against eleven can pull in a completely different direction.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd Win | 7/4 2.70 | 35% | 34% | -1% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.49 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
| Hibernian Win | 11/8 2.42 | 38% | 39% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Hibernian in relegation danger (P10, only 0 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Dundee Utd inconsistent at home (DLLDW), Hibernian solid away (WLWDD) with wins in three of five away fixtures
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3.9 goals per game, Hibernian have won 3 of last 8 meetings with Dundee Utd winning only 2
Stakes: Hibernian are in relegation danger at P10 with zero point cushion — maximum motivation to grind out a result
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Hibernian have won three of the last five meetings including a 3-2 and 3-1 in recent fixtures; the fixture has averaged 3.9 goals across the last 8 meetings, suggesting both teams routinely contribute to the scoresheet in this rivalry.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
