📊 Recent Form
Dundee
Aberdeen
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Dundee at 46%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Dundee at 46% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 36% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 65/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Dundee made their home advantage count against Aberdeen, running out 2-0 winners in a result that flipped the script on recent history between these sides. Westley opened the scoring early on, converting from a Bevan assist in the ninth minute, before Bevan himself sealed it in the 56th with a second goal that killed off any Aberdeen comeback hopes. It was a clean sheet performance that contrasted sharply with the goal-heavy pattern we'd tracked in their recent meetings.
Our model leaned toward Dundee before kickoff but backed a 2-1 scoreline, giving the win just under half the probability at 46%. The actual 2-0 got us on the result direction but not the exact score — Aberdeen's failure to register despite their strong recent form was the key deviation. We'd flagged both sides as likely to score based on their H2H record and the way Dundee had shown attacking threat at home, so a shutout was the less-favored outcome among plausible scenarios. That said, Dundee's dangerous home form and Aberdeen's travels away from Pittodrie suggested the win itself was well within the range of outcomes our model had mapped.
The match played out as a fairly controlled Dundee display rather than the open, high-scoring affair we might've expected given the fixture's recent history. Aberdeen's unbeaten run didn't carry over to the road, and Dundee made their early pressure stick. Not a perfect call on the scoreline, but we got the broader shape right — and sometimes that's what it comes down to.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Win Value | 13/8 2.62 | 36% | 46% | +10% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.34 | 28% | 22% | -6% |
| Aberdeen Win | 13/8 2.60 | 36% | 32% | -4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Dundee inconsistent overall but dangerous at home (xG 2.49); Aberdeen on a superb run, 5 wins in last 6 with 78% win rate
H2H: Last 8 meetings average 3.6 goals/game, BTTS in virtually every recent fixture, away-dominant pattern but Dundee took last home meeting 3-2
Stakes: Early season, no table pressure for either side — neither team desperate, slight lean toward competitive but not reckless play
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings average 3.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in the majority of fixtures; Aberdeen lead the series 5-2-1 but Dundee won the most recent home meeting 3-2 in May 2026, confirming this is a genuinely competitive and open rivalry.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
