📊 Recent Form
Dundee
Hibernian
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. Dundee edge it at 40% against 24% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Hibernian while the probabilities favour Dundee. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Dundee at 40% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 30% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Hibernian came away from Dens Park with a hard-earned 2-1 win, securing three points despite Dundee's late push. The visitors struck early when Boyle opened the scoring in the 25th minute with an assist from Hanley, then doubled their lead through Wright in the 61st with Passlack setting him up. Dundee pulled one back through Westley in the 83rd minute, but it came too late to change the outcome. It was a match that played out broadly as expected—a fairly open contest with chances at both ends and goals spread across the match.
Our model predicted exactly this scoreline beforehand, though the 36% probability attached to a Hibernian win meant it was leaning that way rather than backing it with real conviction. Before kickoff, we'd flagged Hibernian as vulnerable on the road and Dundee as fresher and motivated by their title-race position, so the away win represents a solid performance from the Edinburgh side despite those headwinds. The match didn't throw up any major surprises—it was compact, competitive, and settled by decent finishing when it mattered. Hibernian's composure in the middle period proved the difference, turning early pressure into a decisive second goal that gave them breathing room.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Win Value | 2/1 3.12 | 30% | 40% | +10% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 24% | -4% |
| Hibernian Win | 6/5 2.21 | 42% | 36% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Dundee in title race (P2)
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Dundee (7d) vs Hibernian (2d) — Dundee significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Dundee strong at home (WWLW), avg 1.8 goals scored; Hibernian away form mixed (DDWL), avg 1.33 scored
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3.8 goals/game, Hibernian historically dominant but last Dundee home H2H ended 3-3 and 4-1 to Dundee
Stakes: Dundee in title race (P2) provides clear motivation boost; Hibernian mid-table with no pressure
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H heavily favours Hibernian (5W vs 1W for Dundee in last 8), but the fixture is consistently high-scoring (avg 3.8 goals) and recent Dundee home meetings have seen competitive scorelines including a 3-3 and a 4-1 Dundee win. Fatigue tips the balance toward Dundee this time.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.