📊 Recent Form
Dunfermline
Partick
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. a draw edge it at 44% against 44% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have a draw at 44% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 29% — a gap in our favour of 15 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 70/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Dunfermline and Partick cancelled each other out in a tight encounter that ended 1-1, with both sides finding the net within 60 seconds of each other. Craig Morrison's 24th-minute opener for the hosts was immediately nullified by Ben Stanway's response, as Partick showed the clinical finishing that's defined their away form this season. The quick-fire goal sequence left little room for either side to build momentum, and the remainder of the match settled into a cautious rhythm befitting two teams with plenty to play for in the business end of the season.
Our model predicted exactly this outcome: a 1-1 draw with 44% confidence in the result direction. The factors we'd flagged beforehand largely held up under scrutiny. Partick's seven-day rest advantage did manifest in their attacking threat—Stanway's finish was sharp, and their away-game scoring record (1.44 goals per game) remained intact. The wind conditions we'd noted (26.3km/h) appeared to constrain the match's flow; Dunfermline's defensive solidity at home, averaging 0.55 conceded, kept what could have been a higher-scoring contest contained. Both of Goals Tell The Story: both teams' H2H pattern suggested attacking intent, yet Dunfermline's home setup proved difficult to breach beyond Morrison's finish.
The result rewards the model's caution. While Partick's freshness suggested potential dominance, Dunfermline's defensive organisation and the environmental factors worked against a one-sided affair. A shared point feels appropriate given the underlying form dynamics, with both sides leaving with legitimate claims of tactical competence.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline Win | 7/4 2.76 | 34% | 32% | -2% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.15 | 29% | 44% | +15% |
| Partick Win | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 24% | -13% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Partick (11d) vs Dunfermline (4d) — Partick significantly fresher
- 💨 Windy (26.3km/h) — technical play affected
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Dunfermline avg 0.91 scored/0.55 conceded at home; Partick avg 1.44 scored/0.85 conceded away
H2H: Partick dominant (5W/2D/1L), avg 2 goals/game — slight upward goal pressure
Stakes: Business end of season, both sides equal motivation, Partick fresher by 7 days
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Partick have dominated this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 meetings and winning away as recently as April 2026. However, neutral-venue averages of 2 goals/game and a recent 2-2 draw suggest Dunfermline can contribute goals at home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
