📊 Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
1. FC Köln
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Eintracht Frankfurt at 46%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 29% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Eintracht Frankfurt at 46% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 49% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Eintracht Frankfurt edged past 1. FC Köln with a single goal to secure three points and keep their relegation fight alive. The decisive moment came in the 77th minute when Younes Ebnoutalib finished from Noel Aseko's assist, enough to settle a tight contest at the Waldstadion. It wasn't the goal fest the pre-match numbers suggested might unfold, but Frankfurt's home advantage and desperation in their battle for survival proved the difference.
Our model had predicted a 2-1 scoreline with Frankfurt winning at 46 percent probability — a lean rather than a confident call, and it turned out we had the direction right but overestimated the goal tally. We'd flagged Frankfurt's mixed recent form alongside their strong home record and their pressing need for points given their precarious league position. Köln, meanwhile, had shown solidity away from home despite missing key attackers. On paper, both teams looked capable of finding the back of the net; the reality was a tighter, lower-scoring affair. Frankfurt got the goal they needed when it mattered and held firm to collect all three points.
It's the kind of outcome where the prediction got the most important bit — the winner — but the scoreline didn't play out as expected. These things happen when you're working with probabilities rather than certainties, and Frankfurt's narrow victory still fits within the plausible range of outcomes our model had mapped out beforehand.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt Win | 10/11 1.95 | 49% | 46% | -3% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.15 | 23% | 29% | +6% |
| 1. FC Köln Win | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 25% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Eintracht Frankfurt in relegation danger (P14, only 1 pt cushion)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Bundesliga history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Frankfurt mixed but 50% win rate at home; Köln solid away (DLLWW) but key attackers injured
H2H: Draw-prone over 8 meetings but recent high-scoring games (4-3, 2-2) suggest goals flow
Stakes: Frankfurt in relegation battle — strong home motivation; Köln mid-table with little pressure
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is draw-heavy (4 draws in 8) but recent meetings have been high-scoring — the Nov 2025 clash produced 7 goals and Apr 2026 ended 2-2; Frankfurt's home record in H2H is modest but relegation pressure shifts the dynamic in their favour today.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.