England vs Argentina

Argentina held off a late England fightback to win 2-1 in a World Cup knockout that swung dramatically in the final quarter. England struck first through Anthony Gordon in the 55th minute, with Morgan Rogers picking out the assist, and looked well-placed to upset the odds. Argentina turned it around through Enzo Fernández in the 86th minute — Lionel Messi laying on the cross — then sealed it through Lautaro Martínez in the 90+2nd minute, also from a Messi assist. It was a classic knockout pattern: England ahead, Argentina hunting, and clinical finishing when it mattered most.

Our model leaned toward an Argentina win at 47% and nailed both the result direction and the exact scoreline. That said, 47% isn't a heavy favourite — it was the most likely single outcome, but a relatively tight call among three plausible results. England at 29% and a draw at 24% were both within spitting distance, so while the prediction landed, it came in as a lean rather than something approaching certainty. The match shape aligned broadly with what we'd flagged before kickoff: Argentina's attacking threat and England's vulnerability on the counter-press came through in how the goals fell, and both teams did exactly what you'd expect from a tournament knockout with everything on the line.