Espanyol came away with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Levante in a result that didn't match either the scoreline or the direction our model had predicted. Fernández Jaén opened the scoring early on in the fifth minute, then doubled his tally before the half-hour mark with an assist from Hernández to leave Levante chasing the game at the break. Dolan sealed it in the eightieth minute, setting up by Bauza, to complete a dominant afternoon that bore little resemblance to the tight contest the pre-match data had suggested.

Our model leaned toward a 1-2 Levante win going in, assigning just a 39% probability to Espanyol victory. That lean rested on some fairly sound reasoning at kickoff: Levante's defensive solidity and recent form contrasted with Espanyol's inconsistency, while their last two head-to-head meetings had been tight affairs. The H2H history pointed toward goals, so we'd backed both teams to score and over 2.5 in the match. Espanyol's home record offered a counterweight, but Levante's fitness edge and the stakes—both sides mid-table with nothing urgent on the line—tilted the balance toward the visitors. It didn't play out that way. Espanyol turned in a performance that was simply more clinical and composed than the pre-match picture had accounted for, and Levante couldn't muster a response. Sometimes the data captures the landscape correctly but the day belongs to the team that executes better.