📊 Recent Form
Falkirk
Dundee
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. Falkirk edge it at 40% against 27% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 0–1 points to Dundee while the probabilities favour Falkirk. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Falkirk at 40% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 46% — a gap against us of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Dundee held their nerve to see off Falkirk 2-1 in a match that swung decisively in the second half. Falkirk went ahead from the penalty spot through Jacob Murrell in the 31st minute, but Dundee levelled just after the restart when Owen Bevan finished off a move involving Drey Wright's assist. The game looked set to be tight, but Dundee sealed it late on when Ashley Hay made it 2-1 in the 90+1st minute, with Ethan Hamilton providing the assist.
Our model leaned toward a Dundee win before kickoff, handing them a 33% probability compared to Falkirk's 40%, but the predicted scoreline of 0-1 didn't come to pass. The match played out more open than expected, with both sides finding the net. Dundee's edge in clinical finishing — they'd been averaging more goals per game than Falkirk going in — eventually told, though they had to weather an early setback from the penalty. The comeback win is consistent with the form data we flagged, which favoured Dundee as the more productive side, though the extra goal in the final moments meant the overall goal tally ran higher than our pre-match lean suggested.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk Win | 1/1 2.02 | 46% | 40% | -6% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.49 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
| Dundee Win Value | 5/2 3.45 | 27% | 33% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Falkirk in relegation danger (P11/12)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Falkirk averaging 1.22 scored/1.19 conceded; Dundee averaging 1.50 scored/1.34 conceded — Dundee the more clinical side
H2H: Last 8 meetings neutral in dominance, avg 2 goals/game, recent H2H tight and low-scoring
Stakes: Falkirk in relegation danger (P11/12) providing extra motivation, Dundee comfortable mid-table (P4/12)
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings split 4-1-3 in Falkirk's favour but recent trend shows Dundee winning Dec 2025 away, with matches consistently tight and low-scoring — avg 2 goals/game supports a narrow result
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
