📊 Recent Form
Falkirk
ST Mirren
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Falkirk at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Falkirk at 52% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 46% — a gap in our favour of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 5 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
ST Mirren came away from Falkirk with a clean sheet and a 2-0 win, though it took until late in the match to put the result beyond doubt. Phillips opened the scoring early on, finishing from Fieldson's assist in the 11th minute, then sealed it in the 87th when Idowu picked him out for his second of the night. Falkirk never found a way through, and despite their home record coming in, they couldn't muster the attacking threat needed to trouble ST Mirren's backline.
Our model's most likely outcome at 26% leaned toward a Falkirk win, but missed the mark entirely on this one. We'd predicted a 3-2 scoreline with both sides getting on the scoresheet, banking on Falkirk's strong home form—they'd averaged 2.35 goals at Parkhead before kickoff—and ST Mirren's impressive attacking run, which showed an average of 3.92 scored. The head-to-head history suggested both teams would find the net, with recent away visits from ST Mirren ending in narrow losses for Falkirk rather than shutouts. What actually unfolded was a much tighter affair. ST Mirren were clinical and controlled; Falkirk couldn't break them down. The home side's expected output simply didn't materialize, and early-season momentum plainly favored the visitors on the day.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk Win Value | 1/1 2.01 | 46% | 52% | +6% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.53 | 27% | 22% | -5% |
| ST Mirren Win | 5/2 3.51 | 27% | 26% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Falkirk home record strong (WWL), avg 2.35 scored, only 0.56 conceded; ST Mirren on 4-game winning streak, avg 3.92 scored but 1.64 conceded
H2H: Neutral dominance over last 8 — recent Falkirk home meetings ended 1-2 (Mar 2026) and 1-2 (Sep 2025), suggesting ST Mirren can score away but Falkirk also find the net
Stakes: Early-season, both sides level on motivation — no relegation or promotion pressure to skew the result
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Three of the last four competitive meetings ended 1-2 to one side or the other; both teams routinely score in these fixtures and the head-to-head is evenly balanced with three wins each — Falkirk have home advantage but ST Mirren have won here twice recently.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-2 scoreline totals 5 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.