📊 Recent Form
Famalicao
Maritimo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Famalicao at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 31% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Famalicao at 49% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 52% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 69/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Maritimo came from behind to steal this one, turning a deficit into a 2-1 away win against Famalicao in a match that ran counter to the pre-match script. Van Breemen gave the home side an early lead after eight minutes, finishing off an assist from Aranda, but Bouzaidi levelled for Maritimo just thirteen minutes later. The visitors completed the turnaround deep into stoppage time when Boakye netted in the 90+4th minute to settle it.
Our model leaned toward a Famalicao win at 49%, with Maritimo's chances rated at just 20% going in. The projected 1-0 scoreline reflected expectations that the designated home side would edge a tight affair — Famalicao had shown solid form at home with an average of 0.83 goals scored, while Maritimo's defence looked solid on the road. The head-to-head record, unbeaten in eight meetings for Famalicao, also pointed toward home advantage counting for something. Instead, Maritimo showed the character to come back, especially in that late moment when Boakye finished the job.
This is squarely a case where the result went against the model's lean. Maritimo weren't favoured — their attacking output had been modest at 0.69 goals on average — but they weathered an early setback and turned the match around through clinical finishing. Famalicao had the better of the pre-match indicators but couldn't hold on, making for a reminder that even well-flagged advantages don't guarantee the points.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao Win | 4/5 1.78 | 52% | 49% | -3% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.51 | 27% | 31% | +4% |
| Maritimo Win | 7/2 4.50 | 21% | 20% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Famalicao averaging 0.83 goals scored at home with recent 1-0 win; Maritimo averaging 0.69 goals scored but very defensively solid at 0.43 conceded
H2H: Famalicao unbeaten in all 8 H2H meetings (4W 4D), Maritimo yet to win; avg 2.6 goals/game historically but recent meetings trend low-scoring
Stakes: Both teams in normal mid-table positions, equal footing at start of season — no elevated desperation from either side
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Famalicao are completely dominant in this fixture — 4 wins and 4 draws in 8 meetings with Maritimo yet to register a single victory. Recent meetings trend toward tight, low-scoring affairs (0-0, 0-1, 0-0 in last three), reinforcing the 1-0 scoreline expectation.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.