📊 Recent Form
FC Augsburg
Bayer Leverkusen
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Bayer Leverkusen edge it at 43% against 21% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Bayer Leverkusen at 43% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 54% — a gap against us of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 71/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen served up a proper back-and-forth on Saturday, trading blows to land a 2-2 draw. Leverkusen struck first through Christian Kofane in the 18th minute off Edmond Tapsoba's assist, but Augsburg turned it around with two quick goals in the second half. Michael Gregoritsch grabbed both, first in the 50th minute courtesy of Hennes Behrens, then again five minutes later with Fabian Rieder setting him up. Leverkusen levelled things through Patrik Schick in the 89th minute—Malik Tillman with the assist—to snatch a point and leave both sides with something to show for their efforts.
Our model had predicted a 1-2 win for Leverkusen, assigning just a 21% probability to a draw. That lean had weight going in: Leverkusen carried stronger attacking credentials on the road, and the head-to-head record between these two suggested low-scoring tightness. But Augsburg's title-race urgency at home and both teams' clear capacity to score flipped the script. The match didn't unfold as our model favoured, finishing level where it had backed a one-goal Leverkusen victory. Four goals across 90 minutes also ran counter to the low-scoring pattern we'd flagged from their previous meetings, though Gregoritsch's double and Schick's late finish showed why both outfits remain dangerous in attack.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg Win Value | 3/1 4.15 | 23% | 36% | +13% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.15 | 23% | 21% | -2% |
| Bayer Leverkusen Win | 8/11 1.72 | 54% | 43% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 FC Augsburg in title race (P1)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Bundesliga history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Augsburg home WWLD averaging 2.99 goals scored; Leverkusen away LWWLW with strong attack (2.5 avg scored). H2H: Perfectly split 4-4 over last 8, low avg of 2.1 goals/game suggesting tight matches. Stakes: Augsburg in title race (P1) — significant home motivation boost; Leverkusen mid-table (P7) with less urgency. Betting: BTTS supported by both teams' attacking output and Augsburg's title-race intensity; Over/Under leans toward under 2.5 given H2H low-scoring pattern and Leverkusen injury concerns reducing their attack.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings perfectly split 4-4 with zero draws and a low average of 2.1 goals per game — these fixtures are consistently tight and competitive. The most recent H2H ended 1-2 to Augsburg away, mirroring the predicted scoreline in reverse.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
