FC Cincinnati and Charlotte served up a six-goal thriller that ended honours even at 3-3, defying our pre-match prediction of a 2-1 Cincinnati win. The match was chaos from the start. Bucha gave Cincinnati the lead inside two minutes with an assist from Barlow, but Charlotte hit back almost immediately—Abada levelled at seven minutes, then Biel converted a penalty at 17 to flip the script. Denkey drew Cincinnati level again at 51 with Chirilă's assist, only for Jorno to restore Charlotte's advantage moments later in the 55th minute. The drama wasn't done: Denkey completed his brace deep into injury time at 90+1, courtesy of Ramirez, to snatch a draw for the home side.

Our model assigned just a 25% probability to a draw before kickoff, so this result landed well outside our central lean towards a Cincinnati win at 43%. We'd flagged both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and expected open, attacking football—the six goals vindicate that read—but we badly misjudged the final margin. Cincinnati's mixed home form and recent heavy losses suggested they'd struggle, while Charlotte's away record and head-to-head edge pointed toward a visitors' win or stalemate. Instead, both sides found just enough going forward to prevent either from holding on, and a chaotic second half scramble gifted Cincinnati a point they maybe didn't deserve given how the first 70 minutes unfolded. It's a reminder that even when you clock the broad shape of a match—open, attacking, goals likely—predicting exactly how many times the net will bulge remains a mug's game.