FC Copenhagen put on a commanding display to dispatch SC Braga 3-0 in this UEFA Conference League knockout tie, securing safe passage with a performance that proved far more decisive than our pre-match forecast suggested.

The designated home side broke through in the 49th minute when Elyounoussi opened the scoring, then put the tie beyond doubt in the final stages. Cornelius doubled the lead from close range in the 79th minute, with Meling credited for the assist, before adding his second of the evening just seven minutes later — this time set up by Maseko — to seal a comfortable win. It was a second-half show of control and clinical finishing that left Braga with no way back into the contest.

Our model had fancied Copenhagen at 52% to win, making a 2-0 scoreline the most likely outcome. We got the result direction spot on, but underestimated Copenhagen's attacking potency on the night. Before kickoff, the form gap pointed toward a Copenhagen advantage — the home side's strength at this venue was clear — but we'd hedged on the exact margin, holding back from a higher-scoring call. Braga's inconsistency away from home was flagged, and that proved borne out, but Copenhagen's finishing quality here simply exceeded what the model had weighted. A good night for backing the trend, a miss on the precision.