FC Dallas came out on top at home against Portland Timbers, winning 2-1 in a match that delivered exactly what our model had leaned toward. Logan Farrington opened the scoring for Dallas just before halftime with an assist from Shaquell Moore, then Joaquín Valiente Cioli doubled the lead in the 87th minute after Petar Musa set him up. Portland pulled one back deep into injury time through Ariel Lassiter, who finished from a Gage Guerra assist, but it came too late to salvage anything from the game.

Our pre-match prediction of a 2-1 Dallas win landed square on the mark, though it's worth noting the model assigned that outcome a 47% probability — a lean among plausible results rather than a heavy favorite. The underlying form suggested Dallas had the edge at home with their back-to-back wins and solid scoring average there, while Portland's away record had been shakier. Both sides were chasing European qualification, which kept the stakes high and the intensity real. The match unfolded broadly in line with that pre-kickoff assessment: Dallas controlled the tempo, took their chances when they came, and held firm until the late consolation.

Getting the exact scoreline right is always rare, and it reflected decent work reading how these two sides were likely to set up and perform given their recent trajectory and the competitive context. The 2-1 finish, with Portland mounting a last-gasp effort, felt true to form for a match where the home side was the more clinical outfit.