📊 Recent Form
FC Levadia Tallinn
IFK Goteborg
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts FC Levadia Tallinn at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 18% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have FC Levadia Tallinn at 54% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 31% — a gap in our favour of 23 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
IFK Goteborg pulled off a decisive upset against FC Levadia Tallinn in this UEFA Conference League tie, running out emphatic winners in what turned into a rout. Heintz opened the scoring from the penalty spot in first-half stoppage time, then Bergmark-Wiberg made it two early in the second half with help from Tolf. Larsson added a third from another penalty at 57 minutes, before Bergmark-Wiberg grabbed his second to make it four. Alioum rounded things off with a fifth, assisted by Larsson, before Skvortsov pulled one back for Levadia in the closing stages. The final scoreline read 0-5, a heavy defeat that bore no resemblance to how the match was expected to unfold.
Our model had backed Levadia as clear favourites heading into kickoff, projecting a 2-0 win with a 54% win probability. That lean was built on a strong expected-goals edge in their favour and recent form that suggested they'd control the game. Instead, the match unfolded in almost the opposite direction. Goteborg's clinical finishing and Levadia's penalty-box vulnerability proved the decisive factor—two spot-kicks decided three of Goteborg's five goals. Our model assigned the Swedish side just a 28% chance of victory, so this was a miss on both the result direction and the scoreline. Sometimes the team with the better underlying numbers gets picked off, and that's simply what happened here. Levadia couldn't convert their expected dominance into anything tangible, while Goteborg made every chance count.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn Win Value | 2/1 3.05 | 31% | 54% | +23% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.62 | 26% | 18% | -8% |
| IFK Goteborg Win | 11/10 2.10 | 43% | 28% | -15% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 1-2 (2026-07-21): FC Levadia Tallinn leading aggregate by 1. FC Levadia Tallinn needs to avoid losing by 2+ goals; IFK Goteborg needs to win by 1+ goals (or force ET if win by exactly 1).
- 🏆 Knockout margin cap applied: limited home margin to 2 goals
🔍 Key Stats
Form: FC Levadia Tallinn xG 4.5 | IFK Goteborg xG 0.5
Projected: 57% / 13% / 30%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.