📊 Recent Form
FC Porto
Benfica
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. FC Porto edge it at 43% against 21% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Benfica while the probabilities favour FC Porto. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have FC Porto at 43% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 33% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
FC Porto dominated this Primeira Liga clash to beat Benfica 3-1 and hand our pre-match prediction a clear miss. The hosts got ahead through Gabri Veiga in the 31st minute, assisted by Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa, before things turned sharply in their favour when Clément Lenglet received a red card just four minutes later. Benfica pulled level through Alexander Bah's 51st-minute finish, set up by Gianluca Prestianni, but Porto seized control thereafter. Victor Froholdt made it 2-1 in the 54th minute, picking up an assist from André Silva, then Hwang In-Beom added a third in the 60th, also from Silva's setup, to seal a convincing win.
Our model had this down as a Benfica lean — we predicted a 1-2 scoreline with a 43% chance of Porto winning and 36% backing Benfica. That was never close. We'd flagged similar expected-goals numbers heading in (Porto 1.62, Benfica 1.69) and expected a tight, low-scoring affair. The red card shifted the balance entirely, and Porto's clinical finishing in the second half — two goals in quick succession — was well beyond what the pre-match metrics suggested. Benfica's numerical disadvantage clearly told, and Porto's intensity after the dismissal turned a competitive match into a comfortable Porto win.
This one's a straightforward miss on our part. The model didn't price in the impact of the early sending-off heavily enough, and even the underlying expected-goals picture proved misleading once the match turned. That's football — sometimes the pre-game data points you toward one outcome, and eleven versus ten changes everything.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto Win Value | 15/8 2.88 | 33% | 43% | +10% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.30 | 29% | 21% | -8% |
| Benfica Win | 6/4 2.45 | 38% | 36% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 FC Porto in title race (P1)
- 🏆 Benfica in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: FC Porto xG 1.62 | Benfica xG 1.69
Projected: 39% / 19% / 42%
H2H: 2W-2D-4L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-2D-4L for FC Porto in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.