📊 Recent Form
FC Thun
HNK Hajduk Split
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 42%. HNK Hajduk Split edge it at 41% against 27% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 10 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
HNK Hajduk Split took control of this UEFA Conference League knockout tie and came away with a 1-0 victory, securing their passage with a composed display in Switzerland. De Almeida opened the scoring early on in the 17th minute, and though FC Thun pressed for a response, Hajduk wrapped things up when Sego converted a penalty in the 67th minute to seal it.
Our model had backed Hajduk to win 1-0, assigning that outcome a 41% probability among the likely results. It wasn't the strongest lean — draws and Thun wins were plausible too — but the shape of the prediction landed spot on. The pre-match expectation rested on Hajduk's form and defensive solidity against Thun's struggles at home, and the match unfolded in broad agreement with that picture. Hajduk controlled the tempo, took their chances clinically, and didn't need to overcommit; Thun couldn't break them down. This wasn't a scenario our model had ruled out — it was simply the most likely thread among several possibilities, and it's the one that played out.
Knockout football at this level tends to reward discipline and efficiency, and Hajduk showed both. They got the early goal, managed the pressure, and converted their second chance from the spot without drama. For Thun, the early concession made an already tough ask even harder. It's a straightforward result that matched the form and structure we'd identified beforehand.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun Win | 7/4 2.76 | 34% | 32% | -2% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.57 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
| HNK Hajduk Split Win | 11/8 2.39 | 39% | 41% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Thun — poor home form WLLD, averaging 1.52 goals scored vs 2.08 conceded; Hajduk — dominant run WWWLWWWWWW, averaging 1.98 scored and just 0.81 conceded
H2H: Limited data — no meaningful head-to-head history to draw from
Stakes: UEFA Conference League knockout — full elimination pressure on both sides, expect maximum tactical discipline especially from Hajduk who will not be reckless
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no significant or recent head-to-head meetings to establish a scoring trend between these two clubs.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.