Fenerbahçe put on a dominant display to dispatch Alanyaspor 3-0, turning in a performance that was sharper and more clinical than our pre-match model had anticipated. Greenwood opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 17th minute, then Lukaku doubled the lead just before halftime with an assist from Mercan. Akturkoglu added a third in the 71st minute, and Muriqi rounded things off late on, turning in a chance created by Akturkoglu to seal a convincing win.

Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline with a 58% lean toward a Fenerbahçe win—the result direction we got right, but the margin was off. The Poisson-based expected goals suggested a tighter contest, with the form data pointing toward both sides finding the net. Instead, Fenerbahçe's efficiency in front of goal was noticeably better than the pre-match expectations, while Alanyaspor created next to nothing. The gap between the model's 2-1 projection and the actual 3-0 reflects how much finishing and defensive execution can swing a match on the day—our underlying metrics flagged Fenerbahçe as the clear favourite, but didn't quite capture how thoroughly they'd control proceedings.

It's a clean miss on the exact scoreline, though the fundamentals—Fenerbahçe's quality advantage and likelihood of three points—were sound. That's the nature of football: the model nails the broad strokes but the finer detail can shift quickly once the whistle goes.