Fenerbahçe put on a clinical display to hammer Konyaspor 4-2, overrunning an opponent who offered little resistance after an early flash of hope. Vedat Muriqi set the tone inside seven minutes, but Konyaspor bit back quickly when Colley levelled just three minutes later, aided by Andzouana's assist. From there it was one-way traffic. Greenwood converted a penalty on the 20-minute mark, then doubled his tally moments after in the same minute to give Fenerbahçe daylight. Asensio added a fourth before half-time with Greenwood picking out the assist, and though Greenwood rounded off the scoring with a third of his own in the 49th minute — set up by Muriqi — Konyaspor salvaged a late consolation through Turuc deep into stoppage time.

Our model called the result direction right but badly undershot on the scoreline. We'd predicted a 2-0 win for Fenerbahçe, with the home side given a 60% chance; the wider probability landscape suggested 67% for a Fenerbahçe victory once all factors were layered in. The underlying numbers before kickoff pointed toward a narrow, controlled affair, shaped by Fenerbahçe's clear edge in expected goals and their historical dominance in the fixture. What actually unfolded was messier and more open — Konyaspor scored twice and created more resistance than the pre-match metrics anticipated. Fenerbahçe's ruthless clinical finishing, particularly Greenwood's treble, turned a comfortable win into a rout. The model had the winners right but missed on how decisively the gap would show up on the scoreboard.