📊 Recent Form
Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Fenerbahçe at 57%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 20% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Fenerbahçe at 57% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 69% — a gap against us of 12 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 66/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Fenerbahçe put in a clinical performance to beat Sturm Graz 2-0 in this UEFA Champions League knockout tie, securing a commanding win with goals in the ninth and forty-fifth minutes. Talisca got them started early with an assist from K. Akturkoglu, then M. Greenwood doubled the lead right before half-time with M. Asensio setting him up. It was a controlled display from the designated home side that left Sturm Graz with no way back into the contest.
Our model had predicted a 2-1 scoreline with Fenerbahçe favored at 57%, so we called the result direction correctly but got the exact score wrong. The model had weighted a one-goal margin based on previous meetings between these sides — both decided by a single goal — and Sturm Graz's away form, which suggested they'd keep things competitive. What actually happened was a cleaner shutout, with Fenerbahçe's attacking players more clinical than anticipated and their defence tighter than the pre-match lean suggested. The loss of Sturm Graz's goal in this matchup made the difference between our 2-1 call and the actual 2-0 result.
Still, missing by a goal in a knockout tie is a narrow margin of error. The model got the winning team right and the general structure of the match in the right ballpark — and in a single-elimination game where both teams were going to be fully committed, that's a reasonable position to have taken beforehand.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe Win | 4/11 1.36 | 69% | 57% | -12% |
| Draw | 4/1 5.04 | 19% | 20% | +1% |
| Sturm Graz Win Value | 7/1 7.90 | 12% | 23% | +11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Champions League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Fenerbahçe DWWWW at home (WW), avg 1.78 scored / 0.52 conceded; Sturm Graz DWWWWWWDLW, avg 2.04 scored / 0.47 conceded, away form DWW
H2H: 2 meetings, Fenerbahçe 1W 1D, avg 2.5 goals per game, both games decided by one goal
Stakes: UCL knockout — full intensity from both sides, no dead-rubber discount applied
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data (2 meetings, both in 2017), but both were narrow — a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 Fenerbahçe win — averaging exactly 2.5 goals, suggesting competitive, low-margin contests that slightly favour the Turkish side at home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.