📊 Recent Form
Ferencvarosi TC
Gornik Zabrze
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Ferencvarosi TC at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 14 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Ferencvarosi TC edged past Gornik Zabrze with a single goal to progress in the UEFA Europa League, with Corbu finishing from close range in the 65th minute after Cadu had set him up. It wasn't the commanding performance our model had predicted — the designated home side failed to find a second goal that would've matched our 2-0 forecast — but they got the job done when it mattered in a knockout tie where every mistake carries real weight.
Our model had leaned toward Ferencvarosi at 54% win probability, making the actual 1-0 result a correct read on the direction but a miss on the margin. The pre-match shape suggested a comfortable home win underpinned by Ferencvarosi's solid defensive record and reasonable scoring output, while Gornik came in with mixed form in away fixtures. The match didn't quite unfold with that cushion — Ferencvarosi couldn't add a second despite dominating enough to justify it — but the core expectation held: the stronger side at home found a way through and kept a clean sheet. In knockout football, especially at this stage, that's often enough.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC Win | 8/11 1.72 | 53% | 54% | +1% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.68 | 26% | 25% | -1% |
| Gornik Zabrze Win | 10/3 4.40 | 21% | 21% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ferencvarosi home form is solid (DDWWD), Gornik away form is mixed (LLWDLW). Ferencvarosi average 1.46 goals scored and concede 1.24; Gornik average 1.02 scored and 1.09 conceded.
H2H: Limited data available between these sides.
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — full elimination pressure on both teams, no dead-rubber discount applies.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to identify a clear scoring trend between these clubs.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.