📊 Recent Form
Ferencvarosi TC
Plzen
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. Ferencvarosi TC edge it at 40% against 28% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Ferencvarosi TC at 40% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 49% — a gap against us of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Ferencvarosi TC came away with a 2-1 win over Plzen in a tightly contested Europa League knockout tie, with Kristoffer Zachariassen doing the heavy lifting up front. The Hungarian side broke the deadlock in the 49th minute when Zachariassen struck after being set up by Veljko Birmančević, then sealed it from the penalty spot in the 81st minute. Plzen pulled one back through Denis Višinský in the 90th to make it respectable, but it wasn't enough to change the outcome.
Our model had backed Ferencvarosi TC to win, so we got the result direction right — but we missed on the scoreline. We'd tipped a 1-0 finish, which would've fit the pre-match shape nicely: Ferencvarosi TC looked stronger at home, Plzen struggled on the road, and the head-to-head record suggested tight, low-scoring affairs. A one-goal margin felt like the natural lean given the stakes and the form on both sides. Instead, Zachariassen's penalty in the second half stretched things into a 2-1 contest. That said, the model's 40 per cent confidence in a Ferencvarosi win wasn't some bold forecast — it was a lean among three plausible outcomes, and the tie played out as a proper European cup game: compact early on, then decided by a moment of quality and a set-piece.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC Win | 10/11 1.94 | 49% | 40% | -9% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.73 | 25% | 28% | +3% |
| Plzen Win Value | 11/4 3.65 | 26% | 32% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ferencvarosi TC strong at home (DDW) but missing key players; Plzen poor away (LDWL) with multiple injury/illness concerns.
H2H: Last 5 meetings split neutrally — 2 Plzen wins, 2 draws, 1 Ferencvarosi win; low-scoring trend with avg 2 goals/game; most recent meeting ended 1-1.
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — both teams fully motivated, maximum intensity expected, but high-pressure games often stay tight.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Five meetings produce a neutral dominance picture; scoring is consistently low (2 goals/game average); the Sep 2025 clash ended 1-1, reinforcing a tight, evenly-matched rivalry pattern.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.