Feyenoord came away with a clean sheet victory over AZ Alkmaar, running out 2-0 winners in a result that saw them bank three points without ever looking seriously troubled. Nacho Ferri broke the deadlock early in the 13th minute, and though AZ had their chances, Feyenoord doubled their advantage through Javi López in the 59th minute — López latching onto a Charles Vanhoutte assist to seal the win.

Our pre-match model had flagged this as a tight contest and leaned toward a 2-1 scoreline, which meant we backed Feyenoord to win but got the exact goal count wrong. The model gave the Feyenoord victory a 46% probability, making it the most likely outcome but far from a clear-cut call — AZ came in at 35% and we pencilled in a 19% chance of a draw, so it was genuinely competitive on the numbers. Before kickoff, expected goals had AZ slightly ahead on paper, but Feyenoord's form and head-to-head advantage shaped a lean toward the home side. What actually happened was a more emphatic display than the xG suggested: Feyenoord controlled the tempo and kept AZ at arm's length, with the visitors unable to convert their model-projected threat into anything concrete on the day.

It's a reminder that while models capture underlying quality, football doesn't always play out to the decimal point. We got the direction right but missed on the margin — Feyenoord were simply more clinical and composed than the pre-match data had quite allowed for.